Every year I make a conscious effort to see all 65 NCAA Tournament teams play at some point during the season. The reason I like to do this is not only because I'm obsessed with college basketball, but also because I like to educate myself on all the different smaller schools that can still play at a high level against some of the top teams in the nation. This year we've got a great group of unknown teams that have a real opportunity to make some noise. Most of these smaller schools either play great team basketball, or simply have one amazing individual talent that has carried them. Without further adieu, I've listed the 5 most likely upsets in this year's Big Dance. Two of the upsets that I listed are not small schools. However, after seeing these two teams play more than once I'm confident that they'll be able to move on. Also, I've supplied a rating for each game on the likelihood that an upset will actually occur. The rating system for each matchup starts with one check mark for the teams less likely to win all the way up the five check marks if I believe that an upset is definitely going to take place. Check out the full breakdown below!
#1 - West Regional: #12 seeded Western Kentucky Hilltoppers over #5 seeded Drake Bulldogs
| Former walk-on and current MVC Player of the Year Adam Emmenecker leads the way for a Bulldog team that loves to shoot behind the 3-point line. Unfortunately, you live by the three and you die by the three. In this case, I think Drake dies by the three to a very good and very athletic Western Kentucky team. One of the big differences in this game is that one team has a potential NBA prospect and one doesn't. The Hilltoppers' leading scorer Courtney Lee (6'5) averages 20.4 ppg and 4.6 rpg. Some people believe that Lee could be as big as 6'7 with the ability to score from the inside (49.1%) and the outside (39.9% from three). I think this is going to be a solid game, but I expect WKU's athleticism to win in the end. 5 out of 5 |
|
#2 Midwest Regional: #10 seeded Davidson Wildcats over #7 seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs
| The Davidson Wildcats have the luxury of playing their first two tournament games right in their backyard in Raleigh, North Carolina. Honestly, I think Gonzaga would be a better matchup for Georgetown in the second round because they have a bit more size than the Wildcats. However, the home crowd combined with the expected up and down style of play that we should see will be enough for Davidson to escape with a win. Be sure to watch out for Davidson standout Stephen Curry (25.1 ppg) as he carves up the Gonzaga defense. Gonzaga will need forward Josh Heytvelt to be able to score inside to counter Curry's shooting on the outside if they want to pull this one off. 5 out of 5 |
|
#3 - West Regional: #11 seeded Kentucky Wildcats over #6 seeded Marquette Warriors
| We're certainly not dealing with a small school upset in this game. The Kentucky Wildcats are coming off of a first round flame-out in the NCAA Tournament that could've cost them a bid. Fortunately for UK fans, the Cats are still alive and they have a favorable matchup in the first round against the Marquette Warriors. These teams are eerily similar because both of their team strength's are at the guard positions. In the end, I think offensively these two teams are almost even. However, it's on the defensive side where I believe Kentucky has the edge. We've also got to remember that no matter where Kentucky plays it's always going to feel like another home game the way their fans travel. 4 out of 5 |
|
#4 - West Regional: #11 seeded Kansas State Wildcats over #6 USC Trojans
| We get USC freshman phenom O.J. Mayo versus Kansas State freshman phenom and Player of the Year candidate Michael Beasley in this first round matchup. This will be an interesting game because USC is much stronger at the guard positions, while K-State is clearly better in the low post. There are two advantages for the Wildcats in this game in my opinion. First, this game is being played in Omaha, placing it right in the middle of a Big 12 crowd. Secondly, I think that K-State will have an easier time guarding the perimeter than USC will guarding the low post. Neither team is playing well right now, but I like K-State's chances of getting the crowd behind them early and coming away with the victory. 4 out of 5 |
|
#5 - West Regional: #13 seeded Siena Saints over #4 Vanderbilt Commodores
| The Siena Saints showed consistency by getting big wins at the beginning of the year (Stanford), then capping a nice season off by winning their conference tournament. On the other side of things, the Vanderbilt Commodores have lost 3 out of their last 5 and have averaged giving up 80.8 ppg. This lack of defense from Vandy plays right into the hands of a Saints team that averages 76.8 ppg on the season. Siena has three players on their squad that average more than 15 ppg, led by sophomore Edwin Ubilbes (17.3 ppg). I'm not saying that the Saints will be able to stop Vandy star Shan Foster and the rest of the crew, but I do believe that they have enough offense to outscore them and pull off a massive upset in the process. 3 out of 5 |
|
There were a number of other teams that I just couldn't bring myself to put in the top five despite being very good for small schools. Still, here is a list of the possible upsets that I believe could happen, but are less likely to occur:
#13 Winthrop Vs. #4 Washington State - Winthrop is still solid, but not the same Eagles we saw in last year's NCAA Tournament. Still, the Washington State Cougars play a slow and methodical style of basketball, so don't be surprised is this one finishes under 6-8 points in a win for WSU.
#11 Baylor Vs. #6 Purdue - Love the Baylor Bears, hate the matchup for them. Baylor is the type of team that needs to be able to run up on and down to get into an offensive flow and Purdue simple won't allow them to do that because they're very good at controlling the pace of a game.
#10 Arizona Vs. #7 West Virginia - I'm not sure many people would consider this an upset, but the reason I thought about placing Arizona in my top five is because I believe that they could also beat Duke in the second round in what would be a wide open game. The Wildcats received a lot of flack for getting a bid, but the bottomline is this team has two potential NBA first round selections in their starting five (Bayless and Budinger). There are very few other teams that can make the same claim.
#12 Villanova Vs. #5 Clemson - Nova played decent in the Big East Tournament. However, Clemson played even better in the ACC Tournament in losing to North Carolina in the Championship Game. The Tigers can sure get sloppy at time, but when they're hitting on all cylinders they are as talented as any team in the nation.
#13 Oral Roberts Vs. #4 Pittsburgh - In my opinion, this matchup is a bit scary for Pittsburgh mainly because both teams slow the game down and are very good at executing on both ends of the floor. The limited number of possessions should slightly favor Oral Roberts to keep it close, but I just think the size and athleticism of a hot Panthers team will end up being too much for Golden Eagles to handle in the end.
