Terror's Initial 2007 FF Rankings - QB's

[TerrorB1aze]

Every year right after the draft I make my inaugeral FF rankings that I update throughout the Summer and I thought this year I’d share and post it on here to give some good insight and breath some life into the FF forum. Today I have my QB rankings and each day or so I’ll post a new position. Note this is for 1 year re-draft leagues only with a 50/50 scoring system.


Tier 1:

1) Peyton Manning: Safest pick in the draft. You’re guaranteed to get a full season out of Peyton and a top 5 QB and usually the top QB. The Colt juggernaut is in full force and they’ve added a nice weapon in slot WR Anthony Gonzalez. However they did lose some defense which may force Manning to light it up via air. Don’t expect a 49 TD season but a 4300 yard 35 TD season with a few rushing TDs should make Manning a mid to late 1st round pick this fall. Just don’t go lifting cars with him, “Every man for himself!”


2) Carson Palmer: Carson rebounded nicely from the cheapshot he received in the 2006 wild card game. He started off slow but gained steam and confidence as the season went on. Along with Ocho Cinco TJ Whoseyomama stepped up as pro bowl caliber WR and Chris Henry proved to be dominant in the redzone and vs nickel CBs. While Henry drank he was out of commishion for half a year Carson still has enough weapons to do some damage in 07. Carson is entering the Prime of his career and I believe he’ll post the better numbers than he had thus far. While Peyton has the top spot because of his amazing durability and consistency I don’t see Carson trailing by too much. Expect a 4100+ yard season with 34 or so TDs and 1 or 2 bonus TDs on QB sneaks. Late 1st round early 2nd round is where you want to take Carson.


3) Drew Brees: What a year, the Aints don’t suck anymore (at least for the time being) and a huge reason is the Mole man having a monster season. This is an explosive offense: you may see it’s because of the system, Colston, Brees but the real season is Reggie Bush. As long as Reggie is there he’ll open it up for everyone a la Magic Johnson and make no name WRs like Colston and Copper into heroes. With Bush it’s like a 7 on 7 drill for Brees like shooting fish in a barrel. He won’t throw for as many touchdowns as the golden boys above him but he very well may throw for more yards. Be wary of his injury history though. I got him down for 27 TDs and 4300 Yards. Early in round 2 will be great value for Brees.


4) Tom Brady: I’ve had Tom in the #4 spot all offseason and despite adding all those weapons I still have him here. The only difference is he jumped from the 2nd tier to the 1st tier. After Tom the rest of the QBs have significant ??? and aren’t worth an early pick in my estimation. Finally Tom has decent weapons to go to war with but I remind you in the New England offense the ceiling is much lower than that of Brees, Palmer and Manning. However like those guys he’s a safe bet to finish in the top 5. I guarantee you though in 90% of drafts this fall there will be at least 1 guy who over values the Randy Moss acquisition and spends a mid to early 1st rounder on Tom. Moss isn’t what he once was and the New England offense will prevent Tom from putting up those monster numbers. If Brady is there in the early to mid 2nd round jump all over him but don’t be the guy who reaches in the first. Being in the middle of drafts this year is going to suck as you will be much better off getting one of the 3 stud RBs (at the top) or 1 of the 4 stud QBs (at the bottom).


Tier 2

5) Michael Vick: After Brady the QB crop drops significantly and I would just wait till the 5th or 6th round on a value pick than reach for a QB but that’s just me. The next QB on my board is Ron Mexico errr Dog King errr Michael Vick. Vick haters can laugh all he wants at his inability to pass but at the end of the day Vick will be a top 10 QB because of his rushing. I have Vick at 5 for a variety of reasons: 1. He has a proven track record as a FF QB 2. Bobby Petrino should only help him 3. If that light ever clicks he has the potential to be far and away the #1 QB. 3200 yards passing 1000 yard rushing 22 Pass TD 10 Rushing TDs isn’t out of the question for Vick but odds are he’ll never reach that plateau. I expect Vick to be drafted in the 3rd or early 2nd round in most drafts with occasional “genious” taking him much earlier.


6) Marc Bulger: You know what you’re going to get with Bulger: A ton of yards, 26 ish TDs, a lot of ints, some no show games, some huge games and a missed game or two. Linehan has surrounded Bulger with a nice group of weapons however I believe the offense may go through Stephen Jackson. No fear though he stall has Holt, Bruce, Bennett, McMicheal, Leonard and Jackson himself catching balls. And he’s in a division filled with weak defenses. Draft Bulger and you’ll have a solid QB just make sure you get a decent backup for the inevitable game or two he’ll miss. He’ll go in the 3rd


7) Jon Kitna: I’m not sure where everyone else ranks Kitna but I’m sure it’s not this high which is why he is a guy I’m defiantly targeting if I miss out of the elite 4. He had some struggles last year but ended up with a very solid season in Mad Mike’s offense. Oh and this year they added some dude named Calvin Johnson. Add the fact that their defense is still horrible and Kevin Jones is basically gone then Kitna is going to have to throw it like crazy for Detroit to win. Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson maybe the most gifted WR duo in the league, not many teams have the personell to cover those two huge fast WRs. Add Mike Furrey in the slot ( a solid WR in his own right) and WOW. Shades of the 99 Vikings with Chris Carter, Jake Reed and a young Moss (when he was good) that made old man Cunningham the top FF QB. He’ll be there in the late 4th/5th and savy owners will pass on the bigger names and be there to snatch him up.


8) Vince Young: You either love him or you hate him. Some think he’s god others think he’s a no talent that will fall victim to the madden curse. Where does he rank? Somewhere in between. At first glance he numbers may not be pretty but trust me as a owner who thought his season was over with McNabbs injury Vince picked up the slack and then some carrying me to that league’s championship game. Like Vick VY will makeup for poor passing numbers with his rushing. However Vince is a better passer than people give him credit for a large amount of credit goes to Norm Chow who tailors the offense to Young’s strengths (something Vick’s coaches has never done). I can see him posting decent passing numbers but his rushing yards and TDs (via ground and air) will make him very productive. Opinions vary so much on this guy I don’t know where the hell he’ll go in drafts come August. I know it sounds weird but this goofy throwing 2nd year QB is a safer bet than the rest of the QBs available. God bless FF.


9) Donovan McNabb: Donovan scares me. Having him on my team during his first half run was a joy that was eventually overshadowed by his season ending injury. McNabb proved the doubters wrong that he can kick ass without TO but his durability is in major question right now. And the Eagles reaching for Kevin Kolb just amplifies it. There’s just too many questions for me to rank Donovan any higher, we don’t even know if he’ll be 100% ready to go in September. However come September if McNabb looks like he’s back to form I would strongly consider rolling the dice on him as the 1st QB picked after the Elite 4. Only do this though if you are a skilled vet who can draft a solid sleeper QB late as insurance.


10) Matt Leinart: It was really close deciding between Matt’s here. However I like Leinart’s upside a lot more and Hasselbeck will get picked higher in most drafts anyway. Arizona is building something in the desert and Wisenhunt should bring out the best in their talent which they have a lot in. Even a bum could succeed with the Boldin / Fitzgerald tandem and too a lesser extent Bryant Johnson and Edge. But a talent like Leinart can really thrive with those weapons and an improving O-line being coached up by Russ Grimm. This is a QB I would definitely take a gamble on as my starting QB.



11) Matt Hasselbeck: Hasselrub will be a solid consistant starter for any FF team even though the loss of Darrell Jackson will hurt. Their WR core isn’t as strong as those in Starbuckland will lead you to believe but DJ Hackett is the real deal and forms a solid starting tandem with Deion Branch. However with Alexander getting old, limited weapons and a declining line Hasselbeck isn’t as safe as he was before. However Holmgram will still have a potent offense that thrives through the air. Add the fact that the team isn’t as good as it was leads to a lot less rushing and a lot more passing in the fourth quarter. He won’t carry your team but Hasselbeck is a solid starter.


12) Eli Manning: Aw Shucks it looks like we’ve reached the last 2nd tier and a gee wiz its little ol Eli. Even though it’s fun to pick on the adopted Manning brother Eli still finds a way to put up solid numbers. Before Toomer got hurt Eli was on his way to finishing as a top 5 QB but Toomer getting hurt started the snowball that turned into the pathetic 2nd half Giant team. However Eli looks to have all his weapons back plus Steve Smith and sans TiVi Barber. The question with Eli is how he’ll do without TiVi. Good news is they’ll run less but the bad news is there’s more pressure on the passing game and Eli lost his safety value. Nonetheless I expect little brother to post similar numbers this year which equates to about 3600 yards and 24 TDs. It could easily be a lot more though if Eli starts to reach is potential.


Third Tier

13) Phillip Rivers: Phillip kicks of the third tier. Phillip is a nice safe QB that won’t waste your pick however with LT in the backfield his upside is severly limited. However that doesn’t mean Phillip is no slouch either, with some nice weapons and Norv Turner calling the shots his piece of the pie may be a bit small but it’s a big ass pie. The Gilbert Brown of pies. You’ll see a lot more passing with Norvell calling the shots which may be bad news for the Chargers Super Bowl quest but it’s great news for Fantasy Footballers. Rivers will also receive a bump in stats as he has another year of experience under his belt which is always good. A lot like Brady before he got all those Weapons Phillip has a very short ceiling with a very high roof. 24 TDs and 3500 yards season is in reach, Very Nice.


14) Jake Dellhome: Dellhome pissed off a lot of savy owners last year as he was the starting QB for a lot of “experts” out there as was supposed to ride the Steve Smith wave to top 5 numbers. It didn’t turn out like that. Dellhome succumb to “the best team on paper” jinx as the Panthers were ravaged by injury and underachieving *cough* 2007 Pats *cough* that derailed there season. Yet Steve Smith remains very very good and the addition of Dwayne Jarrett as the new #2 and Kalil to beef up the line and all of a sudden things are looking pretty good. This team looks like the 2004 squad but you can’t count your chickens with Carolina. Dellhome’s upside is high (top 5 high) but he’s too risky to rely on as your #1 especially with the Crash Dummy sitting there as #2 just craving a shot to QB a decent team for once yet alone one as talented as the Panthers. If you land a solid QB 1 Dellhome becomes a very attractive backup because of his upside.


15) Tony Romo: AHAHAHAH he dropped it. What a loser. OMG! Ray Finkel! It’s so easy a caveman can do it. Okay I got it out of my system. Romo comes in as the unquestioned starter for a an old Dallas offense that has enough gas in the tank for at least one more year. Terry Glenn has miraculous stayed healthy and productive, Crayton and Whitten are solid secondary options, MBIII is good despite crappy Julius Jones holding him back and of course Michael Irvin’s butt buddy is still there. However what Dallas team are we going to see? The one that crushed the Buccaneers or the one that sank like a weight at the end of the season. I don’t have a lot of stock into Romo but that offense has a lot of weapons. Romo is the perfect case of owner preference: some guys may really want him and others might avoid him completely. He’s still unproven but has the potential to put up big numbers as long as he doesn’t fumble the opportunity away. F*CK I was almost finished.


Best of the Rest


16) JP Losman: I know I know wtf is this guy doing here. In case you hadn’t noticed the light sorta turned on for Losman (or Windude) at the end of the 2005 season. Losman went from a joke to resembling a solid NFL QB. If you stretch out the numbers of his last 7 games to a full season Losman would’ve had a solid 3500+ yards with 27 TDs. Not bad. Buffalo is a team that’s turning it around, they’re getting good players that fit there system and getting rid of malconents (McGahee) overrated (Spikes) and overpayed (Clements) players. Losman has a nice set of WRs and the addition of a great pass catching back like Lynch will help him more than you think. A lot of people have Losman in the 18-22 range but I really like what I see in him and bumped him up to 16. Don’t be surprised if he’s the breakout QB of 2007. Oh and it doesn’t hurt to have the AFC’s version of Steve Smith to throw too and Lee Evans is perhaps the NFL’s most underrated WR. Parrish, Reed and Price completes Losman’s speedy quartet.


17) Ben Roethlisburger: Big Ben hasn’t been the same since he went Kellen Winslow on the pavement. He was str8 ass in 2007 but after a long offseason maybe we’ll see the old Ben again; The Ben that would stand in the pocket and complete the pass, The Ben that would get hit and not go down like a sack of bricks, The Ben that would get with any chick in sight or in her basement or whatever they were in that picture of him when he was drunk c’mon you’ve seen that picture you know what I’m talking about oh man that was a funny picture….um…, The Ben that would run for a TD when it was there…..We need that Ben back. Roethlisberger still has a nice set of weapons including Fast Willie Parker, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, and “youngin” Santonio Holmes. Fact is we don’t know what Mike Tomlin will do with this offense with him as HC and Wisenhunt gone as OC. See me in August when we have a better idea of the Steeler offense and you’ll see a more accurate rating. Weather it’s higher or lower remains to be seen.


18) Jay Cutler: I’m not be big on Cutler, contrary to popular belief he hasn’t improved a lot left. A lot of his yards and TDs came about because the WR made the play ala J-Walk many times and Brandon Marshall on their long run. He went up against shaky competition and tended to crumble when the pressure got on (sorry padding stats in garbage time won’t cut it forever). I mean the Seahawks Bengals and 49ers are cake city and they gave him fits AT HOME. But to be fair he is a rookie and that one long TD vs ARZ to Walker is proof he will win a superbowl after all. This is the average range Cutler is in right now so that’s where I’ll stick him at lest until we see more. But my gut is telling me to stay away. Am I psychic or do I just have gas? Ugghh don’t eat Taco Bell kids.


19) Jason Campbell: Synder may be the worst thing any NFL team has to deal with, the Redskins may be a bunch of underachievers, and Gibbs may be senile or thinks he’s still managing a Nascar team but hell I’m buying in to whatever Jason Campbell is selling….pass around the Kool aid. Admittingly I thought Campbell was highly overrated coming out of college and destined to bust in the NFL but it turns out that brilliant end to his college career wasn’t a fluke after all. Imagine being a young QB and be thrown in too early into that mess in Washington, anybody would’ve crumbled but Campbell took his lumps and stood with it. Each game he got a little better a little more comfortable. I also believe in Al Saunders and can turn this offense around with more time with his young QB. I also believe Portis will return healthy to tote the rock…..actually I don’t but when Portis does go down again Bett will be there and the offense won’t miss a beat. Santana Moss, Cooley, Randel El. Me likey. Campbell may not be drafted in a lot of leagues as I’ve seen ranked in the 28-23 range. He’s a great option as a backup QB that you can pick up in the last few rounds.


20) Brett Favre: I may be doing Favfe a little bit of a favor by sticking him into my top 20 but with the weak crop of QBs left I’d happily take the old warhorse over Alex Smith’s or Rex Grossman’s fools gold any day. The Packer’s really screwed themselves by staying ideal in free agency and having a horrible draft. However the offensive line is improving and I really like that kid Jennings who should do much better with a year under his belt. Before hitting the inevitable rookie wall and obtaining nagging injuries Jennings as well as the entire Packer offense was at his best. Favre won’t carry anyone now a days but the ironman is a very reliable backup who you can count on in a pinch and vs. easy NFC matchups. And maybe just maybe he will fulfill KGB’s dream of one more glory year.


Sleeper: JP Losman, Jason Campbell
Overrated by August: Jay Cutler
Biggest ???: Donovan Mcnabb, Ben Roethelisburger
Darkhorse: Byron Leftwhich, David Carr

[pastapadre]

Hasselbeck is going to have a bounce-back year. He'll finally be fully healthy to start the season. I'd expect him to get back to the top area of the Tier 2's.

[TerrorB1aze]

I got 2 more QBs in the second tier. At this point the QBs from 5-12 are all pretty close.

[--dmull--]

Lol at your hate on Moss.

[TerrorB1aze]

Originally Posted by dmull

Lol at your hate on Moss.

No I'm just sane. I've been looking around and people are thinking moss will have 1300 yard season with 13+ TDs while Brady has 4500 yards and 40+ TDs. That's just laughable.

The past 3 years Moss has been injury prone and now lacks some of his burst. He can't just go out and turn it on when he wants to and that's why he got frustrated last year. He hasn't been the same deep threat since the Chargers cheap shot him in the 05 season. He also drops so many easy passes its ridiculous. Brady might put up with his pouting but after he drops 2 easy ones that will be the thing that pisses Brady and Bellicheck off. Randy used to get by because his talents were unmatched but that's not the case anymore and while WRs usually mastered the in and outs by the end of their careers Randy still thinks he can just cruise it on talent alone. Also the Patriots tailor their gameplan to their opponent the won't abandon the run in favor of Air coryell passing, the ceiling just isn't that high for those kind of stats.


When Summer rolls around though I'm going to talk him up so much it will make ESPN look they ignore him. I have Moss in a few dynasty leagues and hope I find of sucker to give up something legit for him.

[DNEUM.]

Tier 1 looks good, can't argue with that at all. I agree with you too on Kitna. He put up some good numbers last season, if he can get his INT's down I could see him finishing atop Tier 2 for the #5 spot.

However, I am one of the VY haters and feel he is much too high.

[JalVles89]

I completely agree with you about McNabb. If he can stay healthy for a whole season he will porbbaly finish in top 3 for QB's.

[DNEUM.]

Originally Posted by James89

I completely agree with you about McNabb. If he can stay healthy for a whole season he will porbbaly finish in top 3 for QB's.

Yea definately. But unless he starts slipping I'll probably try to stay clear of him. His injuries scare me too much lol.

[TerrorB1aze]

Updated.

Thoughts?

[JalVles89]

How do you not have Alex smith up there? Hes got Darrell Jackson, Vernon Davis, Frank Gore, and they will run the same offense they ran last year.