Welp, Microsoft has cleared a major hurdle in their attempt to buy out the biggest publisher in the industry, effectively disguising their disgusting attempt at a monopoly under the banner of "increased customer choice." While the merger isn't a done deal still, it's looking pretty hopeless for those of us who want to see a competitive, vibrant console gaming industry.
Of course, Xbox fanboys are cheering, only able to see things through a tribal lens. They make false equivalencies with Sony purchasing declining studios like Psygnosis or upstarts like Naughty Dog or their exclusivity deals with companies (ignoring Microsoft having done both things as well well) or claiming that it's somehow Sony's fault that the Xbox One and Series X are in the sorry state that they're in, as opposed to the bad choices of Microsoft themselves.
It wasn't that long ago that the Xbox 360 was the best console of the generation. Hungry and shooting for the stars, Peter Moore's leadership turned the Xbox from the "Halo system" that they were in the 6th gen to a major force in the industry, growing to the point that even Japan could no longer ignore Microsoft, with Square Enix and Capcom essentially forced to put out Final Fantasy XIII Devil May Cry 4 on the platform in order to retain their market reach.
Then came Dan Mattrick.
Microsoft stopped courting Japanese development, stopped trying to get deals with 3rd parties for the system, and let its first party studios atrophy, including the spinning off of Bungie, the studio that gave Microsoft their first and biggest hit. Dan Mattrick didn't see the value of the gaming market, and sought to reposition Xbox as an all-around entertainment and streaming box (this despite the popularity of Roku at the time) and believed that gamers would simply go along with whatever they dictated, including that hilariously bad DRM that we all remember. Sony, by contrast, never slowed its efforts to build up its first party, or to preserve and build relationships with 3rd party studios, and retained their belief in the traditional games console, allowing them to dunk on Microsoft in a severe way.
For all Phil Spencer's talk of rebuilding the Xbox brand when he took over from Mattrick, nothing of the sort has happened. Aside from Rise of the Tomb Raider, there's been no real attempt to cut deals to lure 3rd parties their way, and the recent Gears and Halo games shows us that there's still no commitment to building a first party that's worth a damn. As a result, the Xbox One remained the joke it had been at launch, particularly outside of North America, Microsoft's only consistently competitive market. Instead, they refocused on a more service-based ecosystem, trying to kill off the concept of buying games entirely. For the longest time, the only thing the Xbox fanboys have had to gloat about was Game Pass, as that was the only thing Microsoft focused on. The Series X looked to be more of the same.
And then they bought Bethesda. And now they're trying to buy the single biggest entity in all of gaming.
Instead of trying to build a brand, they're looking for shortcuts. They can't build success, so they're going to use their endless Windows and Office money to brute-force their way into market dominance. There can be no doubt now, that they're not interested in competition. They're not going to stop buying things until people have no choice but to buy into Game Pass.
There are only three possible scenarios that can come from this acquisition spree.
1) This goes the way of Microsoft's other attempts to force their way into markets, and Microsoft cuts the bull crap. Their endless money didn't buy them success with Zune, or Windows Mobile, or Mixer, and since they had no clue how to build a presence in those markets organically, they eventually gave up. Now, while Microsoft outright leaving the games industry would be every bit as tragic as them getting the monopoly they so obviously desire, but a lack of success that forces them to revisit how they did business when Peter Moore was running the Xbox brand would be great for everyone. This is the only possible good scenario.
2) Microsoft simply continues buying every publisher in sight until they eventually buy all the major IPs, enabling them to essentially dictate the way the industry is run. Nintendo and Sony only have their first party and some smaller Japanese studios left, while Microsoft gets away with selling systems and games at exorbitant prices. Needless to say, this is the nightmare scenario.
3) The most likely, and the most "modest" outcome would be Sony and MS both entering an arms race, with both companies buying every company they can, building their consoles into impenetrable forces. There'd be no way to get major IPs on the opposing console. Basically every game is exclusive to one platform or another. Sony pulls back from releasing games on PC for fear of benefiting Microsoft. The death of the third party, and with it, the death of the mainstream gaming industry.
At least Nintendo will still be doing whatever the hell it's doing, and will likely survive in any scenario. Small comfort, but there's that.
Needless to say, there's very little chance of this being a good thing for consumers. The 9th generation is already turning out to be a bit of a popcorn fart, with releases slow to come and so often failing to meet any expectations at all. I'm not sure what the segregation of every single IP by whichever of these two multi-billion dollar corporations does to help things get better, or why anyone believes the 10th or 11th generations will be any better.
However, the Xbox fanboys are having a great time now, secure in their purchase of one console over another. Enjoy Starfield and all the future installments of Fallout and TES, and of course Call of Duty after Microsoft is done with the deals they had to put out there to look like they're not looking to monopolize the industry. I hope this isn't the start of something worse, but I've no real faith in the future.
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