@palasta: "There is no video from the Fravor vs TicTac encounter. "From the Pentagon"? Does it look like to you the DoD has real interest in disclosure?"
Perhaps there's nothing to disclose, or nothing that would satisfy those who believe the government is holding out, because they won't be satisfied until the US government confirms everything they hope to be true. The DoD could perhaps at least add clarity to the videos they released and whether these are snippets of a larger length of video footage and clarify if more footage exists and whether they can give fuller account, or if these are all there is for each event because this is all the pilots recorded of their encounters.
The Nimitz footage is from a same encounter Fravor was involved with and came from a different Hornet equipped with advanced infrared camera which Fravor's didn't have. Supposedly it was dispatched to investigate what was taking place in Fravor's group's exercise. But the video shows the target and the Hornet pilot maintaining a steady heading, the Hornet is not on an intercept course, doesn't adjust its course, nor is it moving at any speed that would indicate it was trying to catch up with the object with the Hornet going mach .55 or 30% it's mach 1.8 top speed. The target maintains a constant heading and altitude across the pilots field of view (starting 4° right ending 8° left) until the camera loses track of the object when the crew keeps messing with the camera's FOV/magnification. I'm not inclined to believe the government is holding out.
The claim of the tic tac shape seems to be constructed after the fact based on the IR footage but that shape is determined by thermal signature and not the shape of the craft itself. The supposedly written and declassified but still elusive Nimitz report that CBS Las Vegas claimed to have had suggests the FLIR recording (the one the Pentagon released) indicates the craft wasn't moving and remained stationary in its recording which doesn't match up to what the video actually shows, it ignores all data provided in the recordings optics and vehicle data, but states that tracking was lost due to the flight crew letting it slip out of view of the FLIR with no desire to track or pursue it. This also is a contradiction to the multiple pilot corroborated accounting which suggested the FLIR craft was sent to intercept and investigate the craft but the Nimitz written report suggests the FLIR craft was indifference to pursue or monitor the recorded object that happened because they were engaged in an ongoing training mission and not in pursuit of some elusive craft.
The written report suggests the Nimitz FLIR video indicates the same characteristics Fravor witnessed earlier. They claimed the video the DoD declassified indicates in hovered, not the case given the tracked object is seen flying across the horizon to the left. The shape of the craft wouldn't be determined from a 1.5° FOV with a 2x magnification and it's still just a spec suggesting considerable distance and the thermal glow would have obscured its shape. They wouldn't be able to see whether there were visible signs of propulsion from the distance, nor visually given a human aircraft wouldn't even leave condensation trails at 20,000 feet. The Nimitz narrative also plays up the elusive nature of the craft and their inability to track it, but the supposed written Numitz report mentions Fravor's group lacked the necessary tracking and targeting equipment regardless so this downplays the crafts supposed exotic characteristics and abikity to evade their equipment (that they didn't have).
I'd be curious if the written declassified Nimitz report is even legit or a fabrication. It conrltradicts both the video and pilot accounts and neither the video, pilot accounts, or reports are consistent about the event.
Wikipedia references a worth reading skeptic's rebuttal to the sensationalism of the Ariel School event.
https://skeptoid.com/episodes/4760
As for the Ariel School Incident, WhyFiles video seems as sensational as the other bananer UFO claims, and the guy even blows raspberries at the idea of meteorological phenomena. He brings up men in black killing multiple John Macks like a dim witted Terminator was sent back through time to cross off every John Mack in the phonebook, which runs contrary to their lore in being this kind of all knowing and have unaccountable power and exercise surgical precision for covering up UFO evidence. Claiming 4 John Macks were all killed on same day by 4 drunk drivers... and he doesn't source the assertion or provide additional details justs drops it like its an irrefutable fact. Sounds exceptionally dubious.
The WhyFiles guy doesn't mention anything in the ballpark the skeptic's counter-points brought up that a reentry event of a debris field from a satellite launch preempted the Ariel School event and had showered the sky with fireballs in days leading up to the Ariel School event that set the nation in a UFO hysteria.
There's also pointed out criticisms of Cynthia Hind's interviews were conducted within groups where each child's accountings were given after that child had heard the other childrens' accountings given to her, and not conducted separately and compared, rather, suggesting each account built on each other's, creating a consistency to their accountings due to her methodology.
John Macks presence introduced what colleagues accused him of convincing people of what they saw. Telepathic communication didn't enter into the previous accounts until John Mack interviewed the children, and was entirely absent from Cyntia Hind's interview data. The telepathic message also leans more on him inserting his own biases into his data gathering, as he was a staunch anti-nuclear and environmental activist.
Also noted by the skeptic is that this particular school was in very affluent part of the country, with many white children of families of higher socioeconomic status and resources, and commerce that kept much of modern western society lifestyle peresent in the area, and that they'd of had previous exposure to UFO materials of what flying saucers and aliens looked like from movies, televisions, literature, that was common in much of the western world at the time, plus exposed to the growing UFO hysteria in the news that came from the satellite launch's debris field flying over the country and lighting up the night sky in streaks of fireballs days earlier.
This is definitely a worthwhile story to consider though when discussing potential instances of mass hysteria. Even the subject of John Mack some try to portray his declining stature in academia at Harvard being attributed to martyrdom due to his focus of research and not say his poisonous methodologies. Even today another Harvard scientist is getting eye-rolls from colleagues for asserting he potential found alien material debris on the ocean floor yet his status at the university doesn't appear threatened because he's still a value to the institution for his work on important research like studying gravitational micro-lensing.
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