Who will win the 2020 US Presidential election?

@MirkoS77:

This is not meant to continue the discussion. I just want to say I am sorry to hear that all this political bullshit has caused you problems in your family. I hope that it does not persist, and you can find common ground as a family again. Viva la familia.

@comeonman: thanks I appreciate that.

Lmfao, more Trump supporters at Biden rallies than Biden supporters. Yeah, Biden's totally going to win.

Here's another kick to the crotch. While it's widely agreed that the vast majority of republican ballots will be submitted in person, on election day, democrats will lead in early voting. The question is, will their lead be enough leading up to election day to outnumber the republican votes counted then? Well, according to this article, no. So far in Michigan of the 1 million plus ballots returned, 40% are from democrats, and 40% are from republicans with 20% from independents and third parties. Without that early advantage, Trump will win Michigan as he did in 2016.

Furthermore, Republicans actually have a lead over democrats in early voting in Ohio. If you do a 270 to win map, giving him Florida, Ohio, and Michigan, he's won. And to pile on, even Chomp's message shows that democrats have less of a lead this year in voter registration than they did in 2016 when they lost.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/early-voting-data-in-battleground-states-shows-trump-outpacing-national-polls-giving-biden-an-edge/ar-BB1a1XMP

Not all of the early voting data is good news for Republicans. In other key swing states such as Florida, Democrats lead 51%-29%. Democrats lead even larger in North Carolina, which has so far returned 51% of ballots from Democrats, with only 18% from Republicans. The GOP faces its largest deficit in the swing state of Pennsylvania, with Democrats leading 77%-15%.

For those who don’t want to look. Also it’s shows a tie in Michigan and Biden leading in Wisconsin: once again, facts contradict Eoten. Of most won’t be turned in until Election Day. So declaring victory is silly.

Another little tidbit, those numbers don’t tell us who they voted for, just that they voted.

With 60% of the people who attended Trumps rally in Duluth polling as Democrats who didn't vote in 2016. Yeah, a lot of the registered democrats are voting Trump. Biden will lose in landslide fashion. I'll call it now, Trump gets over 300 electoral college votes.

Upon a deep dive, the rally numbers come from the Trump campaign. So again, facts and eoten seem to have gotten a divorce.

I am gunning for the Don. He has good values. I like that.

@eoten: Michigan? I don't think you want to count on Michigan.

Republicans are tied in early voting, there's no chance at dems holding a lead when the wave of republican votes come in on election day. So yeah, you can count Michigan.

Republican is the minority party. And Michigan isn't a red state.

@smallpphenry: Trump has good values? Lmao

As we saw with bernie earlier this year you can have a billion people show up at campaign events but that doesn’t mean you will win. Trump’s campaign like bernie’s in the primary is heavily online and like bernie people in the real world are tuning trump out.Trump is also being outspent like crazy by biden at the moment on the airwaves and internal and public polls show him struggling in key GOP districts and states. Trump is going to do historically bad in many traditional GOP states like Montana, South Carolina, Alaska, Kansas, Utah, Texas and Georgia. He will also lose all of the key swing states. Trump is heading for a sub 200 electoral vote finish at this point

Added something to your statement. ;)

Silly goose, law enforcement doesn't have a vested interest in instilling fear within the minds of criminals. Sounds like you've been reading too much Batman or Judge Dredd. :P That implies you're judge, jury, and executioner, and clearly - and I hope not, for you sake - you're not suppose to be, nor should you. Because honestly, the last thing we need is incompetent cops dishing out law and order, assaulting innocent people on the streets, arresting and badgering innocent folk to confess to crimes they didn't commit because, you know, actual police work is hard. ;)

The purpose of law enforcement is to enforce the law by discovering, deterring, rehabilitating, and/or punishing people who violate the rules and norms of society. We should strive for that instead of maintaining our current system that... doesn't do any of that and does the other bad things I just mentioned.

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Regardless who wins, they'll be some sort of violence and unfortunately so. Hopefully it subsides for the sake of this country. However, the situation we're currently isn't helping. We can't afford more malice from the current system we're in, otherwise, we might as well just be an another unstable country on the brink of collapse.

I hope Biden wins, but despite the polls, we've seen surprises like no other.

That was true in 2016, and you see what happened there. Now they are even closer, or leading in early voting there, not trailing like 2016. Trump has Michigan. It appears he has Nevada too.

Meanwhile the left says if Trump wins, everyone will be forced to have abortions, minorities will go to death camps, and the media will be lined up and shot. Yeah, the DNC isn't innocent from fear mongering bullcrap either. And they've been nothing but divisive for the last 4 years. It's part of the reason they're going to lose in big fashion. Americans are tired of it.

And when he doesn't win, will you still be against the violence and riots? Or are you of the camp that have listened to 4 years of propaganda labeling Trump an ally of Putin and will use that as a means to justify violence against government?

Just listen to Adam Schiff, Chuck Schumer, or Nancy Pelosi. It's all they've been saying for the last 4 years.

@girlusocrazy: Haven’t you figured out he will just flip it around on you? No matter what is told to him, he will always stick to the same lines. I for one am a little tired of it.

@girlusocrazy: I find it annoying he is doing a victory lap when we don’t even know who anybody voted for. I mean hand Trump Nevada after one day of early voting with no idea who those people voted for? Chill on the arrogance, at least wait until the actual tallies come in.

They're more accurate numbers than the polls you've been using to run a victory lap of your own.

@eoten: You did exactly what I said you would do. Took a comment and tried to flip it around on me, while ignoring all logic and facts. Those numbers don’t say who they voted for and I don’t use polls seriously, but I have used your own numbers and sources against you.

Victory lap? Have you decided to ignore that I never said Biden was going to win? I said Trump, you can’t cherry pick statements and take comments out of context to suit you.

Please, for once argue in good faith.

@girlusocrazy: I agree, but sadly some just don’t want to work with others. That happens when you become so sold on your view.

I'm just following the evidence you want to ignore in favor of weighted, slanted polls. The reality you just don't want to see as a reality and would rather stay stuck in your echo chambers and pretend doesn't exist. Trump is going to win, early voting in key swing states is showing a lead, voter registration this season being higher in key states for republicans, all the evidence points towards Trump getting more than 300 electoral votes.

The polls were wrong in 2016, and they are wrong now.

@eoten: good lord

The registration is mostly aligning of already established voting trends

independent voters are rising

early voting doesn’t show who they voted for.

I don’t use polls so you can stop that lie

You are the one in an echo chamber denying reality as you keep spewing out the same lines no matter what you are told

Again, that doesn’t show who they voted for and early voting means nothing as Hilary lead too by larger margins and Democrats lead in North Carolina, Florida and Pennsylvania (Ignore reality)

I never said Trump was going to lose so knock it off

Again, try to argue in good faith and see things from other views other than your own. you refuse to bend even a little and always saying the same things. At least wait until the results actually come in.

FYI, most people will vote on Election Day. All leads could evaporate then and higher early voting maybe a bad sign. That means less people in your party voting on the 3rd and a huge swing the other way. That happened in 2016 too, which you ignore because it goes against your narrative.

I still dont think many are excited for Biden. This could be Hillary all over. Also, Trumps election tricks and underhahdedness could work.

This is how blacks are treated in this country... by Antifa. Being told they're not welcome, being sucker punched in the face, and their only crime? Thinking for themselves, having their own beliefs, and not thinking or acting how they are told to be the left. We see who the real intolerant bigots are, and this is why black support for Trump has been on a steady incline, and another factor that is going to propel him to victory in 2020.

A group of white, privileged college kids surrounding, harassing, and attacking a black man like this is NOT acceptable.

/this guy accurately breaks down how and why Trump will win big.

Anybody else notice eoten cherry picks data? He used increased voter registration in one state while ignoring early voting and then used early voting in another. He is ignoring Democrats huge early voting leads in North Carolina and Florida. I guess that only matters when it’s Republicans.

Voters don’t need to be excited for biden to win. Voters really despise trump and like biden thus they will turn out like crazy to kick trump out.This will be a historic change election because of the amount of voter turnout records and state electoral records that will fall.

@super600: What makes you so sure Biden will win?

Is this guy an Orchard Worker? I have never seen this much cherry picking before.

Not to mentoin the special pleading, poor citations, faulty linking and poor overall presentation.

While more people identify as Republicans in the latest poll, the difference is so small (and in many cases both were tied), it may very well be within the margin of error. Hardly as impressive as it may sound.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Using overall data instead of a few cherry picked instances we see that early voting has HEAVILY favored democrats. But alas, this doesnt get the narrative this YouTube crank wanted to tell.

Also, this is Biden's race to lose. There are far more blue electoral votes than red electoral votes, in order for Trump to win, he WILL need far more swing states than Biden.

I'm expecting the gap to close somewhat in the next two weeks. Biden's 8-9 point lead will look more like a 5 point perhaps. At this time I'm still not making bets due to 2016 polling errors. The results of 2020 will show if pollsters actually fixed any incorrect methods. I won't be taking their word 100% before we see actual results.

I'm just hoping that this is a record shattering year for turnout across the board in each state. The GOP has tried their hardest to limit voting and will continue to do so. My hope is that people show up no matter what, vote no matter what, and finally rid ourselves of Trump.

I think the problem trump faces at the moment is everyone is just tired of him. It will be a lot harder and likely impossible for trump to close the gap in the next two weeks if like the vast majority of voters(around 55%) are not going to change their mind. Biden’s floor at this point is 9 point and his ceiling is above 10 points.I think there is a 40% chance that biden wins in a landslide at this point in two weeks

The difference here is you go by polls, he goes by actual evidence that can be verified. Polls we know for a fact are faked, MSM has been caught in the past weighting them for a favorable outcome, and many people on the right straight up tell pollsters to **** off if they actually do get polled. Polls are absolutely the least reliable mechanism to call an election. But voter turnout, new voter registration, party affiliation of new voters, Trump 94% victory in the republican primary which is virtually unheard of even for an incumbent showing very, very few registered republican voters will cross over to Biden, but many registered democrats will cross over for Trump.

Trump won big in 2016 with around 309 EC votes, winning the states of Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin. There would have to be a MASSIVE turnout of democrat voters early on in those states for Biden to have a chance at succeeding where Hillary failed in 2016, and in 2020 early voting and registration efforts show even more of a swing to who already won those states four years ago.

This isn't Biden's race to lose, he's behind and sinking fast. Trump will get more EC votes this year, than 2016, and I'd bet on that.

Fox news polls are faked? What is your evidence for this?

The last estimate I saw placed Trump's odds at roughly 1 in 6.

The equivalent of the chance of rolling a die and getting a 3 doesn't fill me with confidence, but perhaps I'm once bitten, twice shy. Poker players know that even 3 percent odds still happen on occasion.

@tenaka2: Anything that says Trump is losing is fake.

You are aware voter turn out is high this cycle..........right?

I pointed out that how the video you linked were rubbish.

He went by HEAVILY cherrypicked data, so blatantly dishonest in its framing any high schooler should be able to easily pick it apart. He also made several unproven assertions such as more democrats likely to vote for republicans and ignored the fact that polls so far indicate Biden has a much bigger lead over Trump than Hillary did. Most likely because it doesnt suit his agenda.

Polls are not the least reliable way, scientific polls as a matter of fact, tend to be fairly accurate.

Voter Turnout has historically been shown to favor democrats. And voter turnout so far looks VERY high this election, as the country is getting increasingly partisan (and Democrats aren't running Hillary, but instead a fairly well liked politician)

New Voter Registration actually seems to favor Republicans. To which I say good. People should be encouraged to vote, even if it means voting for a party I disagree with.

94% victory shows loyalty and I will give you that, but again, the democrats arent running with Hillary this time. Biden is significantly more popular.

You are missing the point where there are more safe blue electoral college votes than there are safe red votes. Biden has a higher chance than Hillary. Which is why electoral betting sites overwhelmingly favor Biden.

@LJS9502_basic: The early numbers don’t support him on that. Especially in Florida.

High voter turnout and the fact that every internal and public house congressional district poll I have seen so far in this election shows trump in grave danger at the moment. He is doing significantly worse than 2016 in many districts with a high amount of college educated voters and worse than 2016 in many districts with a high amount of non-college voters. Biden has a legit chance of winning in a landslide at the moment.

I'm hoping for at least 330 EC votes for Biden. That would send strong message.